The Shifting Tornado Threat for 2019

Blasting cornstalks through vehicles and wooden splinters into iron fire hydrants, tornadoes are ferocious freaks of nature that ruin lives and destroy property while racking up enormous damage costs. As we listen to the news during spring storm season, we assume that most twisters touch down in traditional Tornado Alley: from central Texas extending north through Oklahoma, central Kansas, Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. But the locations these deadly storm clouds strike – and their threats to U.S. regions, communities and people – appear to be shifting. Indeed, if MGM had filmed the Wizard of Oz in 2019, Dorothy’s house might be located in Mississippi instead.

According to NOAA, an average of 3.5 tornadoes occurs per 10,000 square miles in the United States every year. While still young, the current 2019 tornado season is again showing a distinct shift in the areas at greatest risk. Many forecasters have begun speaking of this newer area as “Dixie Alley”: portions of the Midwest and southeastern United States comprising Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky. Mississippi received 15.7 tornadoes per 10,000 square miles from 2014 to 2018, according to an AccuWeather analysis of states averaging high numbers of tornadoes per year. Alabama was second with 11.8 and Louisiana was third with 11.7. Some meteorologists also note an uptick in tornado activity in the northeast as well.